Accurate posterior estimation is central to scientific inference, as uncertainties determine what can be reliably learned from observational data. While Markov chain Monte Carlo methods provide asymptotic convergence guarantees, they are computationally demanding in high-dimensional settings. Neural network-based generative models for entire discretized 3D fields enable fast amortized inference but often lack convergence guarantees and principled accuracy assessment. Using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo to obtain reference posterior samples, we conduct a controlled field-level evaluation of an implicit generative model (Stochastic Interpolants) and an explicit likelihood-based model (GLOW normalizing flows). This comparison, unavailable in typical applications, enables the detection of posterior geometry failures that standard metrics cannot capture. As a case study, we consider the cosmological inverse problem of inferring cosmic initial conditions from present-day large-scale structure. To match the precision of modern cosmological data, this problem increasingly relies on complex, non-linear, and non-differentiable simulators, which are incompatible with gradient-based inference frameworks. Generative models offer a route to address these challenges, provided their inferred posteriors are reliable. In this work, we show that matching posterior means, marginal distributions, or achieving high cross-correlation does not imply correct uncertainty structure, as revealed by posterior variance fields and sample-based evaluations. Through this work, we aim to raise awareness of the challenges of uncertainty estimation in high-dimensional field-level settings, highlighting the importance of careful design and validation of neural generative approaches for scientific applications.
Foundation models for astronomical surveys offer powerful learned representations that can be transferred to downstream regression tasks such as galaxy property estimation. However, point predictions alone are insufficient for scientific inference; reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential. We compare seven UQ methods on galaxy property regression using frozen AION-1 foundation-model embeddings, predicting redshift, stellar mass, stellar-population age, gas-phase metallicity, and specific star-formation rate, from Legacy Survey photometry/imaging and DESI spectra, with PROVABGS-derived labels. Distribution-free conformal methods achieve marginal coverage within $\sim$1\,pp of the nominal 90\% across all properties, while non-conformal baselines (Deep Ensembles, MC~Dropout) fail to calibrate reliably. Among conformal approaches, Conformalized Quantile Regression (CQR) delivers the best coverage in the bin with the poorest model predictions. More importantly, only the Locally Valid and Discriminative (LVD) framework -- particularly when operating on AION-1 embeddings -- also provides finite-sample \emph{local validity}, producing intervals that adapt to each galaxy's local prediction difficulty rather than relying on marginal guarantees alone. These results establish conformal prediction, and LVD in particular, as the preferred UQ framework for uncertainty-aware inference on foundation-model embeddings in astrophysics.
Routine full-disk EUV imaging has been available only since the modern era, such as SOHO and SDO. To extend EUV coronal context into earlier periods, we leverage the multi-decade availability of full-disk \HeI{} observations, whose absorption is modulated by coronal irradiance and magnetic topology and is widely used as a proxy for open-field regions. We present a diffusion-based conditional image translation framework, Coronal Hole-aware Diffusion Model Translator (CH-aware DMT), to reconstruct synthetic SDO/AIA 193 Å EUV images from \HeI{} inputs. The model is trained on temporally co-aligned SOLIS \HeI{} and AIA 193 Å pairs spanning 2011--2015 using a month-based split, where January--October are used for training, November is used for validation, and December for testing. On the held-out test set, the reconstructions preserve dominant full-disk EUV morphology (CC=0.92) and recover CH-related low-intensity structure (CC=0.84). We further assess historical applicability by (1) comparing reconstructed AIA 193 Å morphology with SOHO/EIT 195 Å over 2005--2015; (2) comparing reconstructed AIA 193 Å images generated from KPVT \HeI{} inputs against Yohkoh/SXT soft X-ray observations; and (3) evaluating long-term reconstructed disk-integrated emission statistics against observational EUV series and independent solar activity proxies (sunspot number and F10.7 radio flux over 1974--2015). These results indicate that CH-aware DMT conditioned on \HeI{} can provide a physically plausible synthetic AIA 193 Å coronal proxy for historical studies, supporting multi-decade analyses of large-scale coronal evolution before the direct EUV imaging was available.
Reinforcement learning (RL)-based algorithms have recently emerged as a promising approach for adaptive optics (AO) control. In simulations and laboratory experiments, they have demonstrated robustness to real-world effects such as photon and detector noise, misregistration, vibrations, and rapid variations in seeing conditions. However, their performance has not yet been validated on sky. We report the first on-sky demonstration of a reinforcement learning controller for adaptive optics, named Policy Optimization for AO (PO4AO). We further analyze its on-sky behavior and identify directions for improving the algorithm and its implementation.PO4AO was implemented and deployed on the Papyrus adaptive optics system installed at the Coudé focus of the 1.52 m telescope (T152) at the OHP. A Python-based implementation was interfaced with the existing real-time controller (DAO RTC) via shared-memory buffers. The performance of PO4AO was compared to that of a standard integrator controller over several nights, covering a range of flux levels and atmospheric conditions. PO4AO consistently outperformed the standard integrator in all tested configurations. The controller successfully learned and compensated for vibration patterns and demonstrated strong robustness to measurement noise. Once tuned for Papyrus, PO4AO operated in a turnkey fashion, using a single set of hyperparameters across varying observing conditions and science targets. These performance gains were achieved despite a non-optimized Python implementation introducing approximately $750\,μ\text{s}$ of additional latency, along with control jitter and occasional frame drops. When properly implemented and optimized, PO4AO constitutes a robust and high-performance turnkey controller for single-conjugate adaptive optics systems, paving the way for broader adoption of reinforcement learning strategies in on-sky AO operations.
Long-horizon autoregressive forecasting of oscillatory physical signals, such as seismograms, gravitational-wave strain, and similar wavefields is limited by error accumulation: as a causal model is fed its own outputs over hundreds of steps, small per-step errors compound into phase drift that pointwise metrics fail to detect. We ask when such rollout stays stable, using synthetic three-component seismograms as a physically structured testbed and the \textsc{SeismoGPT} autoregressive forecaster as the model under study. Through controlled, intra-architecture ablations evaluated on free-running rollout with paired significance tests, we isolate the contribution of each design choice. Multi-token prediction is the dominant stabilizer, accounting for almost the entire improvement over a single-token baseline ($+0.040$ median NCC); a horizon-embedding hybrid prediction head and a cross-horizon STFT-magnitude coherence loss each add a small but consistent further gain. Performance depends sharply on a context-ratio threshold near one, roughly the full P-S interval of observed signal, below which rollout generalization collapses. The dominant residual failure is a polarity inversion that a magnitude-based spectral loss cannot, by construction, penalize, identifying phase-aware objectives as the natural next step. We frame this as a controlled study of rollout stability on oscillatory wavefields, not a benchmark of forecasting architectures.
The pulsar magnetosphere has only recently been addressed using Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs), by deploying a domain-decomposition approach and treating the separatrix and equatorial current sheet as infinitesimally thin discontinuities. However, this baseline requires extensive manual hyperparameter tuning, achieves limited final accuracy and demands several hours of training. We refine this framework by introducing domain-specific neural architectures based on Kolmogorov-Arnold networks, an automated adaptive training pipeline and a physics-based convergence criterion that eliminate the need for manual calibration. The proposed methodology delivers self-consistent axisymmetric magnetosphere solutions with mean squared errors of the PDE residuals at O(1e-6) in double precision - an improvement of two orders of magnitude over the baseline - while achieving convergence in under 20 minutes in single precision. Importantly, the method reliably resolves stellar radii reduced by up to 80% compared to the baseline, overcoming the severe spatial scale disparities that also challenge traditional solvers. Furthermore, by varying the flux that opens to infinity, we provide a correction to the equation that connects it to the equatorial T-point's position. The complete framework is released as the open-source library PulsarX.
Integral field unit (IFU) spectroscopy provides spatially resolved spectra across galaxies, offering crucial insights into their evolution. However, its high observational cost limits current IFU datasets to $\sim 10^4$ objects. We present a multi-modal, probabilistic foundation model that predicts high-resolution spectra with calibrated uncertainties at arbitrary spatial locations within a galaxy directly from broadband images. Built on a masked autoencoder framework, our architecture injects fiber positional encodings and redshift aware wavelength encodings, enabling spatially conditioned predictions. Trained on 4.7 million images and single fiber spectroscopic observations from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) survey, our model exploits the natural variance of fiber placements and the morphological self-similarity of galaxies to achieve IFU-like capabilities without any IFU training data. Predicted emission line flux maps match independent IFU observations from the Mapping Nearby Galaxies at APO (MaNGA) survey, with performance comparable to a supervised baseline trained directly on IFU data.